Monday, October 03, 2005

Housing Market Cooling?

by Osman Parvez

Since Toll Brothers (TOL) announced it was lowering its earnings estimates for the quarter, housing markets across the country seem to be reverberating. A rash of new articles about the cooling market have also emerged. Here's one from the New York Times.

Keep in mind that our region was hailed by economists as an example of a soft landing only a few months ago in this article, also from the New York Times. The areas that saw the greatest appreciation are those that are now most at risk. As noted in our research piece on the bubble issued this past summer, if there is a slowdown in markets that experienced a bubble, it's possible we will feel the affects locally, but the sky is not falling.

1. For the most part, we didn't see high appreciation rates from the bubble. The greatest appreciation occurred in metro markets on the east and west coasts.
2. Colorado is seeing a net positive migration due because of its incredible quality of life and low cost of living. To point, most of our recent clients are relocating from other states.

Our regional market may only slow slightly, or not at all. There may be more opportunities for those that have waited on the sidelines, but it's not likely that we'll get sucked into the downdraft of a collapsing housing bubble.

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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties.   We strongly recommend conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate. 

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