Autumn is Cooling, So is the Market [Market Update]

Note: The following analysis was published in the latest edition of Fresh Listings, our regular newsletter to our clients, prospective clients, and colleagues. Click HERE to sign up.

It's not just the weather getting colder. The market is finally showing signs of seasonal cooling. 

In both Boulder and Denver, pending sales were still well above average last month but trending lower than last year's frenzied pace. The exception was for condos and townhomes in Denver, where pending sales were up 16% YoY last month and are currently tracking 50% above average. 

Sold price data shows a similar pattern, across the board. Prices were up 20% or more, year over year. Yet in most cases, prices also show a sustained cooling trend from the peak of the selling season. 

Take a look at the chart above for Boulder, single family median sold $/T.SQFT. The yellow line represents the most recent median sold price data. The blue line is the same time period a year ago. From a $/T.SQFT perspective, the market peaked in July.  

Based on a comprehensive analysis of data in Denver and Boulder, I believe we're finally seeing a pause in the frenzied sales activity that began last year. At this point, it looks like normal seasonal cooling. If I see anything that indicates a serious market pullback in pending sales, sold volume, or median prices, we'll be the first to let you know. 

Buyers could have a rare opportunity for a good fourth quarter - measured by more options and the possibility of negotiating discounts on seasoned listings. Sellers should also be cautious this 4th quarter, especially if trying to list a home with deferred maintenance or in a compromised location. The market may be less forgiving. It would likely be a mistake to price off of the June peak, especially at the higher end of the market. In most cases, we are now advising our sellers to wait until the spring selling season unless they're motivated for personal reasons to have it off their ledger this year. 

p.s. Our full analysis is available for City of Boulder, Boulder County, Longmont, and Denver. We also track Louisville, Lafayette, Superior, and Broomfield but only on client request. If you're working with a House Einstein agent and would like a detailed presentation of market activity, just reach out to your broker. 

Osman Parvez  is the Founder and Employing Broker of House Einstein. Originally from the Finger Lakes region of New York, he lives in Boulder with his wife and their Labrador Retriever. He has been a Realtor since 2005.

Osman is the primary author of the House Einstein blog with over 1,200 published articles about Boulder real estate. His work has also appeared in many other blogs about Boulder as well as mainstream newspapers, including the Wall Street Journal and Daily Camera. For more information, click HERE.

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The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the opinion of the writer and subject to business, economic, and competitive uncertainties. House Einstein strongly recommends conducting rigorous due diligence and obtaining professional advice before buying or selling real estate.  

Please Note

This document contains forward-looking statements. You are strongly cautioned that investment results are subject to business, economic and other uncertainties. There are no guarantees associated with any forecast and the opinions stated here are subject to change at any time. Always consult your financial advisor before making an investment decision.